Gen Z voters wield power in swing states

Jackson Breslin is in his first year at Syracuse University and his first presidential election as a voter. In between figuring out how to live with a roommate and when to study, Breslin also had to decide where to vote. His parents had recently moved to Scranton, Pennsylvania. Breslin could vote in his new college town or register in a swing state.

He chose Pennsylvania.

“Moving from rural North Carolina to a city in Pennsylvania, and then to Syracuse, New York, they’re completely different environments,” Breslin said. “It’s very different how young people view politics.”

Breslin’s generation is expected to make up nearly one-fifth of this year’s electorate, according to a Tufts University survey. Many first-timers will vote in the seven projected swing states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. In Nevada’s close 2022 Senate battle, young voters alone provided nearly three times the margin of victory. Gen Z voters could play a pivotal role in deciding slim wins in the states where the margins matter the most.

Swing state voters like Breslin can expect to get a lot more attention from politicians than their peers, and that difference will affect how young people experience the election, said Mark Brockway, a political scientist at Syracuse University. 

“So a state like Pennsylvania will be key, and [student voters] will be saturated with political information and messages from both candidates,” Brockway said.

While preparing to vote in Pennsylvania, Breslin said he has been exploring political involvement on campus while keeping an eye on politics in his battleground state.

“If I’m going to be voting in Pennsylvania, I need to be listening to them,” Breslin said.

Attracting Gen Z voters

The candidates know they have a crucial young audience in the swing states. In early April, President Joe Biden visited a college campus in Madison, Wisconsin, to discuss his student debt relief plan, a promise hoping to favor the state’s college-age voters. Within a week of his visit, First Lady Jill Biden visited community college campuses in North Carolina to discuss education.

Former President Donald Trump has also made campaign moves targeting college students and young voters in key states. Soon after Biden spoke to students in Wisconsin, Trump paid a viral visit to an Atlanta Chick-fil-A and spoke with students and conservative activists near the campuses of famous historically black colleges and universities.

Although campaigns and media are laser-focused on the seven swing states, predictions about where battles will be closest are not always accurate. During the 2020 state elections, Texas democrats mobilized themselves on the possibility that they could flip the state blue. Although the Republican margin of victory turned out wider than expected, considering Texas a swing state created anticipation that mobilized voters, Brockway said.

“The narrative around which states are and are not swing states can change, and can have an interesting effect on turnout,” Brockway said.

While it is hard to perfectly predict where young votes will be most crucial in close races on Election Day, the special treatment of swing state students helps shape the state-by-state engagement of their age group. Geographically targeted campaigning sends a compelling message to some young voters that their vote is especially important, but it tells a different story for students voting elsewhere.

Like Breslin, Katie Metis is a college student in New York state preparing to vote in her first presidential election. Originally from Queens, she will cast her ballot this November as a New Yorker. Metis lives on campus with another student from Texas, a state with historically closer presidential battles. She recalled her roommate’s stories about driving past billboard-sized political ads and roadside propaganda, a rare sight in Metis’s New York hometown.

“I had never experienced that,” Metis said. “Maybe in one House [race] or certain areas very minimally, but nothing huge, which opened my eyes to how different states interact with the election and with politicians.”

Down-ballot races matter

While the political fervor concentrated in swing states might make first-time voters from those seven feel “a little bit more engaged,” according to Brockway, students who aren’t from a battleground state could feel the opposite.

“Voters who aren’t in swing states, even those from the majority party, might think, ‘Well, why do I even need to vote in New York? I know who’s going to win. It’s not going to matter,'” Brockway said.

Despite the apathy that he has seen among some students, Brockway encouraged young people to turn out on election day, even in states where the presidential outcome feels inevitable. Races for state and local politicians may be tighter, and the results of those elections could impact voters more directly.

“The presidential race is not the only race that matters,” Brockway said. “Down-ballot candidates at the national, state, and local level are also important.”

Recent actions at the federal level have pushed some issues to voters at the state level. Abortion rights, for example, have fallen into the hands of state legislatures since the Supreme Court overturned Roe V. Wade in 2022. First-time voters can elect down-ticket candidates and support ballot measures that align with their views on individual issues of importance, even if they don’t feel particularly aligned with a presidential candidate or the political lean of their state.

Beyond this election year and the buzz surrounding its seven swing states, the political landscape is ever-changing. Brockway said first-time voters across the map have a say in those shifts.

“States can and do change from being solid states to swing states and vice versa,” Brockway said, “Consistent political participation is a way to ensure your preferred party stays in power.”